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DUNBAR FINE WINE / February 2003: The 2000 Bordeaux deliveries begin.
Who
can you believe? Highly respected financial houses predicted some
months ago that the FT100 would be at 4500
at the end of 2002. The FT100 is currently at
3579 and the Dow Jones is 7885. In September last year I wrote about the New York stock market crash of 1929 and that it did not recover to its previous level until 1954, an incredible 25 years!! Last week, three Professors from the London Business School said that many institutional investors and company executives were being "irrationally optimistic" with regard to market returns and that it could be 15 years or more before share prices recovered to the highs of late 1999.
Last week on an early evening television programme, I sat next to a very well regarded and respected financial advisor who intimated that he would still probably advise clients to invest in the market. The optimists and stags of the financial world have been saying this to a greater or lesser degree for the last 3 years and the table you see describes quite what the result of this "informed" advice would have produced. No one KNOWS when this market is going to stop going down but I do think that it is fair bet that it will be a very long time before it recovers its losses. The UK wine market has been fairly buoyant with some very good Italian wines being offered, the 2001 Burgundy vintage and early offers on the Rhone 2001's which are very good wines. The immediate prospect of the Bordeaux 2002 en primeur campaign is going to be very interesting because stockholders in the UK still have worryingly large amounts of the wines from 1997 and 1999. There has been dumping of these wines at below cost already this year as brokers and merchants attempt to free up working capital. There are bargains about for the astute consumer of claret, but these wines are not ones to buy by anyone with any idea of investment return. Some players are touting the Bordeaux 2001 vintage as an investment year; my opinion is purchase to consume - nothing else. There is a very strong feeling within the UK market that the Bordelais will need to price the 2002's very keenly if they are to sell at all. Time will tell, and I am certain that the reality of the financial problems in the markets around the world will cause them to price accordingly, otherwise they will be faced with a consumer resistance that will surprise or even shock them. A price of £500 for the 1st growths from 2002 would stimulate demand and would sell well. The Bordeaux 2000 vintage continues to occupy centre stage. The Wine Spectator published its ratings in January and there were sufficient numbers of high 90 and 100-point wines to cause the market to reassess current prices. Latour and Lafite are difficult to come by but the market is a little complicated my some of the top chateau having only released 50-60% of their production. Lynch Bages 2000 having drifted in price down to almost £500 is now sitting very robustly at £540 and was given a very good rating by the WS so will in the medium to long term only go up. The same applies to Léoville Barton 2000 where its price had dropped off somewhat; the WS rating will only do good things for their best wine ever. Leoville las Cases has also done extremely well with it's rating, as did some high profile wines from Pomerols and Saint Emilion. Tertre Roteboeuf is on the up with prices from £1000 to £1150, and with the wine from 1990 selling for £1800 - £2000 per case that has got to be a good deal. There are still bargains in the market as some people have had to sell stock due to the drop in the financial markets and the requirement to realise assets, but these tend to be short lived as people like me snap them up for their clients. We are all still waiting for Robert Parker to publish with his final ratings for the Bordeaux 2000 vintage now that they have been bottled. His numbers and words as we all realise will cause some prices to go up again and there will be cases where the reverse applies. It is so important that if you are considering purchasing some wine from this vintage to buy at a good price, there is absolutely no point in buying great wine at a price that may take 5 or 10 years to be matched in the market place. There is also some concern that wine that has been traded many times outside of the merchant or broker who originally supplied it may have some complicated paperwork or worse to contend with, so PLEASE only deal with trusted suppliers who will indemnify any problems should they occur. I know that it is unfashionable but vintage port can be such a thrilling wine to drink. Port is not selling very well at the moment so if you would like to put a case or two into you cellar of the 1980, 1983 or 1985 which are all drinking well and will continue to do so for some years to come then now is a very good time to purchase. People who have purchased top class, investment quality wine during the past few years should feel very secure, in that the rest of the world for some time to come, are going to have to compete for what is out there already. I am increasingly contacted by people who have paid an inflated price for their wine. I have absolutely no problem with this but if offered a deal, please check first. We all know what a washing machine or a can of baked beans costs, but the vast majority of the drinking or investing public do not know that Chateau Cheval Blanc 1996 is worth about £1000 (trade price) and absolutely not the £3500 that he was charged. If you feel that you may have a similar problem, please do not hesitate in contacting me. As always take professional advice from people with a high degree of transparency.
If you are looking for Fine Wine that is ready to drink, please consider the wines featured on the recommendations page, where you will be able to order quality wine at terrific prices supplied by some of the UK's finest wine merchants. To get the project off the ground I have chosen 5 wines that I think are great value and these are Dunbar Fine Wines Recommendations of the Month. The list may change during the month if a particular wine has sold out, or if there was little quantity to begin with. I want to see wine that I would want to drink, at a price that I think was remarkable value on the page, nothing less will do! You will be able to order quickly and safely. Let me know what you think and what you would like to see. Whether you are a wine lover, an investor or indeed a bit of both - please do not delay. Interest rates are down and set to remain at historically low levels for the foreseeable future. Fine wine as part of a properly balanced portfolio of investment can be capable of offsetting troubled times in other financial areas, and the rewards are absolutely tax-free. Call in to our website at http://dunbarfinewine.co.uk/investment.html to see for yourself how fine wine has historically been a first-class and consistent investment, when the wine is sourced from reliable suppliers and not some of the cowboys that have given our business problems in the past. STOP PRESS: Click here for this month's selection of fine wines for purchase
If you wish to discuss the acquisition of wine, please complete
the form in the Contact section.
December
2001 Newsletter - click here |
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