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AUGUST 2002 Newsletter: The prevailing market STOP PRESS: Click here for this month's selection of fine wines for purchase The FT100 has fallen by about 25% since I last wrote; the Dow is also down catastrophically. I did ask those regular readers to keep the last newsletter for 3 months and see what would happen. Robert Parker did indeed say that the Bordeaux 2000 vintage was the greatest for 50 years and individuals who purchased have very wide smiles. Those who took my advice will be very, very happy, especially my clients and those who did not…well, better luck next time. The Bordeaux 2000 1st growths are on average 20% higher now than in February/ March, the market has held for the Cheval Blanc at £3,700 and the rest sold out or are selling out. When I wrote last, the 2001 Bordeaux en primeur campaign was just starting. It was very hard work for the merchants concerned, who by and large only bought what they could sell. They did not get caught by any false promises from some of the Bordelaise, with propositions that if they bought heavily from the 2001 vintage; that they would get preferential treatment next year. Many UK merchants still have considerable stocks from 1997, when they last bought into that "trick." If you have a long memory, you will remember 1984 when the wine trade were "forced or even blackmailed to buy" and the wine was "a dog" almost to a bottle - it was thin and lacked fruit. 2001 is different, the wine is not bad, there is some good, very good and even excellent wine there but history will show that there was no money to be made at those prices. The 1st growths were £950 per case, which is about £250 more than they were worth when one, examines quality and price, and the resultant value quotient. 2001 Bordeaux is quite simply a vintage to buy if you want to drink it. So where is the value in the fine wine market currently. The 2000 Bordeaux is still out there, there may be the odd "Fire Sale" where someone wishes to sell wine that has not been delivered yet. You are purchasing a promise to deliver, be wary, only buy from a well-respected source - this late in the en primeur cycle for the 2000's there can be many a slip between cup and lip. There are too many pitfalls for the unwary or the uninitiated, and there are sharks out there who do not take prisoners. There is wine that has done very well over the last 6 months, for example for one client we bought a case of Chateau Cheval Blanc 1982 at £4980 duty paid, the current value is £6,800 - a 36% increase in value. We took instruction for a case of Chateau Mouton Rothschild 1982 in bond and bought at £4080, currently valued at £4,400, an 8% increase, which looks good, against a backdrop of 25% falls in the world stock markets. Chave Hermitage we purchased for clients at £900 and now valued at £1750, a staggering 90+% increase. Even, very recently I was offered Tertre Roteboeuf 2000 at £800 per case, now worth £1050, a 30% rise. The rise in prices of the best of Bordeaux 2000 has caused some wine from the 1980's and 1990's to look cheap, take the best advice possible and buy only the best cellared examples, if available - if not, wait. Some do better than others at various points in time, but a case of great, fine wine, is precisely that. A share or bond certificate is ultimately, just another piece of paper that may or may not deliver. Spread the risk! If you like vintage port, the 2000 vintage is a very good one, the 2001 sweet Bordeaux crop is also very fine; but these are wines to buy, lay down and consume. It is possible to purchase fully mature, well-cellared vintage port and sweet Bordeaux at prices very similar to the current opening prices. There is very unlikely to be any profit in these wines. Rhone 2001 is looking good, as are earlier vintages from Italy and Spain. If you are looking for Fine Wine that is ready to drink, please keep checking the site as I am about to launch a recommendations page where you will be able to order quality wine at terrific prices supplied by some of the UK's finest wine merchants. Each month around 5 internationally known and respected merchants will be invited to put forward about 10 wines for consideration, from these I will choose what I think are great value and these will be Dunbar Fine Wines Recommendations of the Month. The list may change during the month if a particular wine has sold out, or if there was little quantity to begin with. I want to see wine that I would want to drink, at a price that I think was remarkable value on the page, nothing less will do! You will be able to order quickly and safely, unlike so many sites where you "lose the will to live" as the process becomes interminable and not wholly dissimilar to a visit to the dentist. Let me know what you think and what you would like to see. Whether you are a wine lover, an investor or indeed a bit of both - please do not delay. Interest rates are down and set to remain at historically low levels for the foreseeable future. Fine wine as part of a properly balanced portfolio of investment can be capable of offsetting troubled times in other financial areas, and the rewards are absolutely tax-free. Check out some of web pas e.g. http://dunbarfinewine.co.uk/investment.html to see for yourself how fine wine has historically been a first-class and consistent investment, when the wine is sourced from reliable suppliers and not some of the cowboys that have given our business problems in the past. If
you wish to discuss the acquisition of wine, please complete the
form in the Contact section. December
2001 Newsletter - click here |
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